On religion factor, it's Obama for president by Douglas Todd
Let's cut to the almost-inevitable chase: How will Barack Obama do against John McCain in this fall's rumble for the U.S. presidency? With signs showing Hilary Clinton will have to drop out of the race, we're going to be left to determine whether the 46-year-old black Democrat or 71-year-old white Republican will climb into the powerful office. And that requires looking at the religion factor.
In American politics, which hugely affects Canada and the globe, religious loyalties deeply shape voters' preferences. But November will see a volatile election as things are changing dramatically on the U.S. religious front. The main reason is the country's large white evangelical bloc, worth more than one out of every four votes, won't be the all-important factor it was in bringing George W. Bush to power in 2000 and 2004.
If you harbour any doubts about how big a role religion plays in American politics, look at the blanket media coverage early this month of Obama's relationship to his boisterous former Chicago preacher, Jeremiah Wright.
For his part, McCain also has links with radical Christian leaders, even though they've not received the same level of attention. Still, McCain's opponents repeatedly question how the Arizona senator could embrace preacher John Hagee, who has denounced Catholicism as the "Great Whore" and believes Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment on "sinful" New Orleans. The latest polls show, overall, Obama holding onto about 47 per cent of Americans' support, compared to McCain's 43 per cent. Given that, let's break down how religious groups in the U.S. might lean come the fall ballot.
JEWS
American Jews generally lean to Democrats over Republicans. A Gallup poll showed Jews would vote for Obama over McCain by a margin of 61 per cent to 32 per cent. The trouble for Obama is Jews count for only one out of every 58 American voters.
MUSLIMS
The Muslim vote also goes strongly to Obama. Muslim leaders are actively questioning McCain's ties with Muslim-bashing Protestant preachers. However, Muslims make up only one out of every 166 Americans.
AFRICAN-AMERICAN PROTESTANTS
These black Chrisians account for a significant seven per cent of Americans. They're a slam dunk for Obama. Polls show nine out of 10 will vote for their Harvard-educated Christian brother, a member of the United Church of Christ denomination.
THE NON-RELIGIOUS
Most Americans who say they're non-religious (16 per cent) strongly favour Obama over McCain.
WHITE EVANGELICALS
Eight years of Bush in the White House have changed the political shape of American evangelicalism. Many evangelicals are no longer making opposition to abortion and gay marriage their prime issues. Some Christian leaders are calling for evangelicals to stop being "useful fools" who blindly follow the Republican party no matter what. George Barna, a respected evangelical pollster, says white evangelical support for the Republican party is down to 29 per cent, a calamitous decline.
McCain, an Episcopalian who attends his wife's Baptist church, also has to deal with not being the first choice of the Religious Right, which had wanted Mike Huckabee. Aware of his lack of credibility among these hawks, McCain had argued the U.S. military needs to stay in Iraq for a century (a position he softened Thursday, May 15, 2008) and he's been singing the praises of some hard-line televangelists.
Meanwhile, even though Obama is pro-choice on abortion and homosexual rights and says the U.S. must get out of Iraq, many born-again Christians like him anyway, for talking passionately about the redemptive power Christ has had in his life. An informal poll by the leading evangelical youth magazine, Relevant, found evangelicals in their 20s would overwhelmingly vote for the black senator.
ROMAN CATHOLICS
Catholics are key because they make up the swing vote in U.S. elections. Comprising 24 per cent of Americans, Catholics have for the past nine elections consistently backed the winning horse for president. Though public polls have not yet directly compared how McCain and Obama would do among Catholics, McCain will likely be in trouble among them for embracing the combative Protestant Hagee, who took until May 13 to apologize for branding Catholicism a "cult."
There is little doubt events beyond religion will stir up voters before the November election, particularly if a conflict arises with Iran. But barring an earth-shattering political event, I'd place my bets, given religion-rooted trends, on Obama for president.
